Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022297 0.025309 0.028603 0.032476 0.036911 0.041838 0.047734
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017237 0.021235 0.026000 0.032116 0.039783 0.049112 0.061374
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014500 0.018860 0.024363 0.031853 0.041838 0.054766 0.072898
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.012978 0.017650 0.023830 0.032662 0.045054 0.061960 0.087008
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011447 0.016165 0.022660 0.032336 0.046519 0.066759 0.098209
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010643 0.015552 0.022563 0.033411 0.049968 0.074601 0.114607
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009392 0.014137 0.021128 0.032311 0.049990 0.077270 0.123339
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008485 0.013126 0.020168 0.031782 0.050761 0.081066 0.134162
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007555 0.011980 0.018874 0.030567 0.050257 0.082700 0.141495
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007246 0.011781 0.019041 0.031711 0.053711 0.091149 0.161406
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.006959 0.011586 0.019184 0.032809 0.057172 0.099927 0.182899
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006670 0.011357 0.019240 0.033746 0.060419 0.108627 0.205242
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006161 0.010715 0.018553 0.033334 0.061247 0.113141 0.220415
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005715 0.010147 0.017946 0.033010 0.062209 0.118022 0.236970
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005324 0.009641 0.017400 0.032736 0.063218 0.123060 0.254422
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005122 0.009463 0.017437 0.033569 0.066469 0.132857 0.283089
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004787 0.009005 0.016905 0.033233 0.067317 0.137833 0.301910
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004656 0.008925 0.017089 0.034340 0.071251 0.149663 0.337587
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004279 0.008334 0.016222 0.033207 0.070311 0.150916 0.349002
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004000 0.007915 0.015663 0.032663 0.070584 0.154840 0.367215
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003672 0.007372 0.014809 0.031412 0.069161 0.154785 0.375698
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003607 0.007365 0.015060 0.032589 0.073351 0.168097 0.419402
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003540 0.007347 0.015282 0.033720 0.077549 0.181893 0.466283